Former US 'China House' official: Taiwan conflict not inevitable --[Reported by Umva mag]
Washington — China has been one of the most-discussed international topics during the U.S. presidential campaign. VOA spoke with Rick Waters, former head of the Office of China Coordination at the State Department and deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan, about the Biden administration's China policy. Waters spoke about his experience dealing with his Chinese counterparts, and how he thinks Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump would handle China, if elected. This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity. VOA: How do you evaluate the progress made in U.S.-China relations after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in California last year, and do you see real, meaningful results coming from the meeting? Rick Waters: I think we have to look at this Woodside summit as the culmination of a number of things that happened in the administration. The first is that for the first period, Biden was focused on rebuilding the U.S. domestic strength and reinvigorating partnerships and alliances globally, and then from that position, dealing with China from a position of relative strength. So during that first two-year period, the U.S. China relationship was, in some ways, arguably, not the priority. It was important, but it was managed largely through leader level diplomacy, which, in China's current political configuration is the most important channel. And then we know what happened in 2022 circumstances around the visit of former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi [to Taiwan] led to a downward spiral, and Biden and Xi made an initial effort to stabilize relations that fall at their summit in Bali, but it only made it a few months, and then the surveillance balloon knocked things sideways again. So, I think what we have now is a little bit more stable floor built around the leader level channels, a few modest areas where there is some common work underway, and a web of senior, empowered channels at the Cabinet level, including Jake Sullivan, who try to manage conflict and competition rather within bounds, within guardrails, to avoid the scenario of unmitigated downward spiral we saw in 2022. VOA: Do you think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is inevitable, or what should the U.S. do to deter that invasion? Waters: Well, nothing's inevitable, but I think we should start when we look at the Taiwan issue by recognizing that the U.S. and China have had a difference of views on this issue for longer than you and I have been alive, and it hasn't resulted in war. So, while neither side is perfectly happy with the issue, China objecting to US armed transfers the U.S., objecting to, most recently, this extraordinary PLA modernization effort and rhetoric that implies that the leadership has a greater sense of urgency on the issue. I don't think that conflict is inevitable, and I think at its core the U.S.’s interest is peace and stability. That's what's anchored the prosperity in the Indo-Pacific over the past couple of decades. The ability for commerce, for trade, for people-to-people flows regionally to thrive in an environment where there is no war. And so, I think if we take that as our starting point, I don't think that conflict is inevitable, but I do think that the U.S. and Taiwan are focused very much on the question of how to ensure that the leadership in Beijing never believe they have a viable military option and an acceptable cost. And if that condition holds, then I think it will fall to the diplomats and to the channels that exist between the parties to manage this issue carefully. VOA: During your career as a U.S. diplomat, what’s your experience dealing with your Chinese counterparts? What are some striking and most challenging aspects or moments that left an impression on you? Waters: I've been fortunate to deal with Chinese diplomats for the better part of 30 years. And what I will say is irrespective of what you think of China's policy or political system, they do have a very professional diplomatic corps. They've got very talented people in the system. What I think has changed over the past few decades is it's a much more disciplined system. So, it's very difficult, especially in official meetings, for Chinese diplomats to move too far off of the established line. So, I don't think that we should misunderstand the level of talent in the system when we look at it through its structural constraints. But I do think that as China's overall foreign policy has become more assertive, as you know, the leadership has talked about China playing a greater role on the international stage. It has gone through periods where the wolf warriorism, the change in tone from the podium, has characterized a different era of Chinese diplomacy than what we saw before. But I actually think, in some ways, there are plenty in the system who understand the counterproductive nature of those tactics, and I've seen a little bit of a
The following news has been carefully analyzed, curated, and compiled by Umva Mag from a diverse range of people, sources, and reputable platforms. Our editorial team strives to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information we provide. By combining insights from multiple perspectives, we aim to offer a well-rounded and comprehensive understanding of the events and stories that shape our world. Umva Mag values transparency, accountability, and journalistic integrity, ensuring that each piece of content is delivered with the utmost professionalism.