Montana Senate poll finds Democratic incumbent trailing GOP challenger, with control of Senate in balance --[Reported by Umva mag]

New polling shows Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate in the upcoming election, with the GOP challenger leading against a Democrat incumbent in Montana.

Republican challenger Tim Sheehy leads the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester, in a 52% to 44% matchup, according to a New York Times/Sienna poll released Thursday. Democrats currently hold a 51-seat majority in the Senate, and Sen. Joe Manchin's, I-W.V., decision to retire virtually guarantees a seat flipping toward the GOP.

While there are competitive races elsewhere in the Senate, Republicans appear to be holding strong, according to Marist polling. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is leading his race with 51% support, compared to the 46% of his challenger, Collin Allred.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., faces a closer race in Florida, where he holds a slim 50%-48% lead over challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

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That story is reversed in Ohio, however, where Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown holds a 50%-48% lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

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The Cook Political Report also shifted the Wisconsin Senate race from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up" this week.

The handicapper cited changes in polling in recent days, with Republican challenger Eric Hovde appearing to close the gap with Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

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The latest Marquette Law School poll showed Baldwin winning the battle, 51% to Hovde's 45%. The survey interviewed 882 registered voters over Sept. 18-26. The poll's margin of error was +/-4.4 percentage points.

The most recent Fox News Power Rankings from last month had Wisconsin at "Leans Dem."

Fox News' Julia Johnson contributed to this report

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