Risk of bird flu combining with seasonal flu to create mutant strain is 5 times higher – raising ‘pandemic’ fears --[Reported by Umva mag]

THE risk of bird flu merging with seasonal flu to create a dangerous mutant strain is now very high, experts have warned. They fear the new bug could be as lethal as bird flu and as transmissible as regular flu, giving it the potential to cause a pandemic. GettyBird flu could become spreading among people, which might cause major outbreaks,[/caption] When two viruses infect someone at the same time, they can mix and create a new, possibly more harmful variant, through a process called reassortment. The risk of bird flu reassorting this winter will be five times higher in the winter, compared with the summer, according to preliminary modelling by analytics firm Airfinity. Bird flu, specifically the H5N1 strain, has been spreading through cattle herds and poultry this year. At least 17 people have been infected with H5N1 strain in the US this year – almost all of them poultry or dairy workers who had direct contact with sick animals. Bird flu has a high mortality rate, but currently spreads ineffectively between humans, making it less of a threat. But if it were to reassort with a more transmissible flu variant like seasonal flu it could become better at spreading among people, which might cause major outbreaks, experts at the data firm warn. The likelihood of dairy and poultry workers also being infected with seasonal flu rises in winter, when flu cases rise natually. Infections always surge in colder months largely due to colder temperatures, indoor crowding, and weakened immune systems. On top of this, early data from the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) suggests the effectiveness of the 2024 flu vaccine to be as low as 35 per cent. Coupled with a low uptake of the jab, which would leave more people at risk, these factors raise the likelihood of reassortment taking place, said Connor Browne, a biorisk consultant. “The combination of a lower-than-expected efficacy for this year’s flu vaccine and the likelihood that uptake of the vaccine could well be lower than in previous years increases the chances of a H5N1 reassortment event occurring through coinfection,” he said on X, formally Twitter. Reassortment has been behind most, if not all, historical flu pandemics, including the 2009 ‘swine flu‘ pandemic. This particualr strain, called H1N1, was a combination of avian, swine, and human influenza viruses, which led to a new variant which was able to spread rapidly. It led to the deaths of an estimated quarter of a million people and infected up to 21 per cent of the global population. Bird flu is already on the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) list of diseases with pandemic potenital, along with Ebola, Dengue and the black death. Dr Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organisation, told a press conference on Thursday that the US needs to focus on “access to testing, getting vaccines to people with high-risk occupational exposure, and answer some of the basic science questions – like how the virus is being transmitted between cows”. Bird flu: Could it be the next human pandemic? By health reporter, Isabel Shaw BIRD flu is running rampant in wildlife around the world and is now spreading in cows. This increase in transmission has given the virus lots of opportunities to mutate – a process where a pathogen changes and can become more dangerous. Scientists fear it’s only a matter of time before one of these mutations makes it better at spreading among mammals – and potentially humans. Some experts believe the virus could already be spreading among some animal species. So far, there is no evidence that H5N1 can spread between humans. But in the hundreds of cases where humans have been infected through contact with animals over the past 20 years, the mortality rate is high. From 2003 to 2024, 889 cases and 463 deaths caused by H5N1 have been reported worldwide from 23 countries, according to the World Health Organisation. This puts the case fatality rate at 52 per cent. Leading scientists have already warned an influenza is the pathogen most likely to trigger a new pandemic in the near future. The prospect of a flu pandemic is alarming. Although scientists have pointed out that vaccines against many strains, including H5N1, have already been developed, others are still in the pipeline.

Oct 14, 2024 - 16:31

Risk of bird flu combining with seasonal flu to create mutant strain is 5 times higher – raising ‘pandemic’ fears --[Reported by Umva mag]

THE risk of bird flu merging with seasonal flu to create a dangerous mutant strain is now very high, experts have warned.

They fear the new bug could be as lethal as bird flu and as transmissible as regular flu, giving it the potential to cause a pandemic.

a computer generated image of a colorful virus

Bird flu could become spreading among people, which might cause major outbreaks,[/caption]

When two viruses infect someone at the same time, they can mix and create a new, possibly more harmful variant, through a process called reassortment.

The risk of bird flu reassorting this winter will be five times higher in the winter, compared with the summer, according to preliminary modelling by analytics firm Airfinity.

Bird flu, specifically the H5N1 strain, has been spreading through cattle herds and poultry this year.

At least 17 people have been infected with H5N1 strain in the US this year – almost all of them poultry or dairy workers who had direct contact with sick animals.

Bird flu has a high mortality rate, but currently spreads ineffectively between humans, making it less of a threat.

But if it were to reassort with a more transmissible flu variant like seasonal flu it could become better at spreading among people, which might cause major outbreaks, experts at the data firm warn.

The likelihood of dairy and poultry workers also being infected with seasonal flu rises in winter, when flu cases rise natually.

Infections always surge in colder months largely due to colder temperatures, indoor crowding, and weakened immune systems.

On top of this, early data from the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) suggests the effectiveness of the 2024 flu vaccine to be as low as 35 per cent.

Coupled with a low uptake of the jab, which would leave more people at risk, these factors raise the likelihood of reassortment taking place, said Connor Browne, a biorisk consultant.

“The combination of a lower-than-expected efficacy for this year’s flu vaccine and the likelihood that uptake of the vaccine could well be lower than in previous years increases the chances of a H5N1 reassortment event occurring through coinfection,” he said on X, formally Twitter.

Reassortment has been behind most, if not all, historical flu pandemics, including the 2009 ‘swine flu‘ pandemic.

This particualr strain, called H1N1, was a combination of avian, swine, and human influenza viruses, which led to a new variant which was able to spread rapidly.

It led to the deaths of an estimated quarter of a million people and infected up to 21 per cent of the global population.

Bird flu is already on the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) list of diseases with pandemic potenital, along with Ebola, Dengue and the black death.

Dr Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organisation, told a press conference on Thursday that the US needs to focus on “access to testing, getting vaccines to people with high-risk occupational exposure, and answer some of the basic science questions – like how the virus is being transmitted between cows”.

Bird flu: Could it be the next human pandemic?

By health reporter, Isabel Shaw

BIRD flu is running rampant in wildlife around the world and is now spreading in cows.

This increase in transmission has given the virus lots of opportunities to mutate – a process where a pathogen changes and can become more dangerous.

Scientists fear it’s only a matter of time before one of these mutations makes it better at spreading among mammals – and potentially humans.

Some experts believe the virus could already be spreading among some animal species.

So far, there is no evidence that H5N1 can spread between humans.

But in the hundreds of cases where humans have been infected through contact with animals over the past 20 years, the mortality rate is high.

From 2003 to 2024, 889 cases and 463 deaths caused by H5N1 have been reported worldwide from 23 countries, according to the World Health Organisation.

This puts the case fatality rate at 52 per cent.

Leading scientists have already warned an influenza is the pathogen most likely to trigger a new pandemic in the near future.

The prospect of a flu pandemic is alarming.

Although scientists have pointed out that vaccines against many strains, including H5N1, have already been developed, others are still in the pipeline.

The following news has been carefully analyzed, curated, and compiled by Umva Mag from a diverse range of people, sources, and reputable platforms. Our editorial team strives to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information we provide. By combining insights from multiple perspectives, we aim to offer a well-rounded and comprehensive understanding of the events and stories that shape our world. Umva Mag values transparency, accountability, and journalistic integrity, ensuring that each piece of content is delivered with the utmost professionalism.